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Playing PredictIt, Episode 1: Day 435
Hey there's a generic ballot market now!
Dec 2, 2021
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James J. Heaney
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Playing PredictIt, Episode 1: Day 435
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Playing PredictIt, Day 534: Liz Cheney Is Toast
But the generic ballot is fire emoji!
Mar 10, 2022
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James J. Heaney
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Playing PredictIt, Day 534: Liz Cheney Is Toast
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Playing PredictIt, Episode 2: Day 444
Georgia Governor polling, why I believe(d) in the filibuster, and results from last week's generic ballot experiment!
Dec 9, 2021
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James J. Heaney
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Playing PredictIt, Episode 2: Day 444
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Pay-Listers, What Do You Want Me To Write?
Seems only fair
Aug 25, 2023
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James J. Heaney
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Pay-Listers, What Do You Want Me To Write?
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Big Penguin Polling Looks Real To Me
It'd be a lotta work for a grift.
Oct 18, 2022
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James J. Heaney
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Big Penguin Polling Looks Real To Me
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Who Wins? A 2012 Projection Based on the Partisan Skew Hypothesis
In my recent (and surprisingly popular) post about the weirdly good polls the Democrats have been seeing recently, I suggested that the polls might be…
Nov 3, 2012
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James J Heaney
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Who Wins? A 2012 Projection Based on the Partisan Skew Hypothesis
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The Great Democratic Turnout Miracle
During this cycle, likely voter polls have consistently shown more Democrats showing up to vote than Republicans. Actually, that is a bit of an…
Oct 27, 2012
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James J Heaney
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The Great Democratic Turnout Miracle
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Expected Spread of Covid (Coronavirus) in Minnesota
People keep asking me how bad this thing could get. I don't think it's helpful to look at the national level, because there is no single national…
Mar 13, 2020
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James J Heaney
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Expected Spread of Covid (Coronavirus) in Minnesota
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Expected Daily Covid Deaths in Minnesota (May)
Version 3 of the Minnesota Model was released a few days ago. The model immediately drew skeptical reactions for its prediction that Minnesota would…
May 16, 2020
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James J Heaney
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Expected Daily Covid Deaths in Minnesota (May)
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Why a Tax Protest Against Abortion Wouldn't Work
Someone wondered aloud whether we could stop abortion simply by bringing the U.S. government to its financial knees. All we have to do is stop paying…
Jan 26, 2012
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James J Heaney
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Why a Tax Protest Against Abortion Wouldn't Work
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Betsy DeVos is Not the Schoolpocalypse
The past few weeks, I've been forced to spend a lot of time playing the game "Not That Bad." The rules of this game are simple: President Trump…
Feb 7, 2017
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James J Heaney
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Betsy DeVos is Not the Schoolpocalypse
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Trump's Delegate Lead is Overstated
UPDATE: I have launched a Poor Man's Stop-Trump Delegate Tracker based on the "Nightmare Scenario" laid out in this post. The media and…
Feb 27, 2016
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James J Heaney
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Trump's Delegate Lead is Overstated
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