One minor typo: In second sentence of footnote 14, second "Trump" should be "Biden."
Among Republican politicians, being "defensive" on abortion may be an understatement. On allowing grieving parents to sue negligent IVF clinics for allowing their embryonic children to be dropped on the floor and killed, Republicans were quickly stampeded into supporting an outrageous grant of absolute immunity to the clinics in Alabama regardless of how irresponsibly or maliciously they kill embryos. The media, always ready to salute the anti-life flag, generally reported this as "protecting parents and clinics" from legal liability, when what it did was protect the clinics FROM parents. I expect the media bias to continue and grow in this election year.
The utter shamelessness of reporters in promoting their agenda was something I predicted before Dobbs (as, I'm sure, did you), and yet the totality of it has still left me flabbergasted (and its *effectiveness* has left me dismayed).
The beginning of the article really confused me because I know a lot of people that switched from Biden to Trump but no one who switched from Trump to Biden. But of course, in the end you are right. I’m Hispanic, and so is everyone I know who switched from Biden to Trump.
IMO, based on conversations with those people, the biggest factor was that in 2020, we disliked Trump and were neutral to Biden. Based on Biden’s performance, we now dislike both, and it’s a hard choice for many. This is why we are supporting Haley as something different. (This honestly includes myself. I’m switching from Biden to Third party, but that’s because I moved from a swing state to a Biden state, largely because the Republican governor. Of course my move also strengthens Trumps lead in swing states.)
Ha! I started this read while on vacay and got some side-eye looks from my family about having my nose in my phone. “No it’s only a short one I’ll be done soon!” … lies!! ;) very worthy read though
A trend which I've been hearing is that there is a massive split between the male vote and the female vote. (Something along the lines that if only one gender voted tomorrow, opposite candidates would win in blowouts) It seems that, from what I've heard, all of the conservative gains among blacks, for example, are among male black voters. I've not heard any chatter about other minorities, but I wonder if it is similar?
It's true that the gender gap got wide over a decade ago -- to the point where I argued in 2012 that Republicans didn't have a race problem; they just had such a big problem with minority *women* that it looked like a race problem! -- and the gap has since become gargantuan, but I haven't really looked at anything about it for 2024. I should!
For some reason Democrats think that "immigrants" are a race with solidarity. In reality if your a Cuban born in America with full citizenship and someone from Costa Rica hopes the border on an asylum claim and is crowding your kids school and hospital you have no solidarity with him at all just because both of you are tan.
Trump speaking out against immigration is helping, not hurting, him with non-whites. It's only whites that feel super guilty about it (RACIST!).
Also, the economy isn't that strong. Larry Summers has a piece noting that when you include the cost of money (interest rates) inflation is even worse then everyone thinks. Nobody can buy a house at 7% 30 year rates, and young non-whites and shut out of the expensive first house they can't afford.
An important factor might be the profound extent to which Biden has failed the progressives of color who got out the vote for him. You're exposed to right-wing media that depicts Biden as left-wing, and he simply isn't. He was picked as Obama's running mate as a reassuringly stable and centrist presence among the Democrats, and he defeated everyone to his left in the 2020 Democratic primary, with practically no one to his right. His tendency to shift rhetoric to whatever is popular can give him the appearance of leaning left, but in terms of the policies that BIPOC progressives wanted, he mostly hasn't achieved or hasn't even attempted them. Then as we enter the election year, Biden's unwavering material support for Israel has dealt a killing blow for his support with these groups, at least in my feed. The people who previously might have said, "We all need to vote for Democrats even if they're flawed," lack any incentive to keep saying that.
These progressives aren't among the people who have switched to Trump. But if no one in your circle is emphasizing how we have to stick with Democrats anymore, you might feel fewer compunctions about switching.
I'm somewhat skeptical of this as a leading factor, simply because BIPOC progressives are so much rarer on the ground than they are on our Twitter feeds (yep! mine too!), and they have played so little role in leading the Biden coalition from the start. Biden won the 2020 primary because of overwhelming Black support, but largely (from my anecdotal observation) Black progressives were *real upset* about that. Their dismay made no difference. From 2020, I drew the influence that Black progressives have very little influence over the behavior of Black voters as a bloc.
You're certainly right about the dynamic of disillusionment and anger playing out on the Left right now (especially over Israel), and you're also certainly right that Biden -- though well Left of the American center -- is also far to the Right of the median Democratic primary voter. The mechanism you suggest is *plausible*: a substantial faction of Black leaders were keeping Black voters in line through their influence, but, disillusioned, stopped using that influence, so the line broke up and people sorted ideologically. It's an elegant proposed mechanism. I just need more reason to think Black voters were indeed being significantly influenced by these leaders.
(Now, if you're looking at Muslim voters specifically, I would be much more inclined to believe this, especially given the VERY high tensions between Muslim voters and the rest of the Dem coalition over social issues.)
Not short, but well worth the time.
One minor typo: In second sentence of footnote 14, second "Trump" should be "Biden."
Among Republican politicians, being "defensive" on abortion may be an understatement. On allowing grieving parents to sue negligent IVF clinics for allowing their embryonic children to be dropped on the floor and killed, Republicans were quickly stampeded into supporting an outrageous grant of absolute immunity to the clinics in Alabama regardless of how irresponsibly or maliciously they kill embryos. The media, always ready to salute the anti-life flag, generally reported this as "protecting parents and clinics" from legal liability, when what it did was protect the clinics FROM parents. I expect the media bias to continue and grow in this election year.
The utter shamelessness of reporters in promoting their agenda was something I predicted before Dobbs (as, I'm sure, did you), and yet the totality of it has still left me flabbergasted (and its *effectiveness* has left me dismayed).
The beginning of the article really confused me because I know a lot of people that switched from Biden to Trump but no one who switched from Trump to Biden. But of course, in the end you are right. I’m Hispanic, and so is everyone I know who switched from Biden to Trump.
IMO, based on conversations with those people, the biggest factor was that in 2020, we disliked Trump and were neutral to Biden. Based on Biden’s performance, we now dislike both, and it’s a hard choice for many. This is why we are supporting Haley as something different. (This honestly includes myself. I’m switching from Biden to Third party, but that’s because I moved from a swing state to a Biden state, largely because the Republican governor. Of course my move also strengthens Trumps lead in swing states.)
That is the best little just-so anecdote I could have imagined.
It is great to hear this perspective -- ANY perspective, really -- from outside my bubble. Thank you!
Out of curiosity, are all of the people you know who switched to Trump men?
Ha! I started this read while on vacay and got some side-eye looks from my family about having my nose in my phone. “No it’s only a short one I’ll be done soon!” … lies!! ;) very worthy read though
A trend which I've been hearing is that there is a massive split between the male vote and the female vote. (Something along the lines that if only one gender voted tomorrow, opposite candidates would win in blowouts) It seems that, from what I've heard, all of the conservative gains among blacks, for example, are among male black voters. I've not heard any chatter about other minorities, but I wonder if it is similar?
I should look into this.
It's true that the gender gap got wide over a decade ago -- to the point where I argued in 2012 that Republicans didn't have a race problem; they just had such a big problem with minority *women* that it looked like a race problem! -- and the gap has since become gargantuan, but I haven't really looked at anything about it for 2024. I should!
Non-whites hate illegal immigrants.
For some reason Democrats think that "immigrants" are a race with solidarity. In reality if your a Cuban born in America with full citizenship and someone from Costa Rica hopes the border on an asylum claim and is crowding your kids school and hospital you have no solidarity with him at all just because both of you are tan.
Trump speaking out against immigration is helping, not hurting, him with non-whites. It's only whites that feel super guilty about it (RACIST!).
Also, the economy isn't that strong. Larry Summers has a piece noting that when you include the cost of money (interest rates) inflation is even worse then everyone thinks. Nobody can buy a house at 7% 30 year rates, and young non-whites and shut out of the expensive first house they can't afford.
An important factor might be the profound extent to which Biden has failed the progressives of color who got out the vote for him. You're exposed to right-wing media that depicts Biden as left-wing, and he simply isn't. He was picked as Obama's running mate as a reassuringly stable and centrist presence among the Democrats, and he defeated everyone to his left in the 2020 Democratic primary, with practically no one to his right. His tendency to shift rhetoric to whatever is popular can give him the appearance of leaning left, but in terms of the policies that BIPOC progressives wanted, he mostly hasn't achieved or hasn't even attempted them. Then as we enter the election year, Biden's unwavering material support for Israel has dealt a killing blow for his support with these groups, at least in my feed. The people who previously might have said, "We all need to vote for Democrats even if they're flawed," lack any incentive to keep saying that.
These progressives aren't among the people who have switched to Trump. But if no one in your circle is emphasizing how we have to stick with Democrats anymore, you might feel fewer compunctions about switching.
I'm somewhat skeptical of this as a leading factor, simply because BIPOC progressives are so much rarer on the ground than they are on our Twitter feeds (yep! mine too!), and they have played so little role in leading the Biden coalition from the start. Biden won the 2020 primary because of overwhelming Black support, but largely (from my anecdotal observation) Black progressives were *real upset* about that. Their dismay made no difference. From 2020, I drew the influence that Black progressives have very little influence over the behavior of Black voters as a bloc.
You're certainly right about the dynamic of disillusionment and anger playing out on the Left right now (especially over Israel), and you're also certainly right that Biden -- though well Left of the American center -- is also far to the Right of the median Democratic primary voter. The mechanism you suggest is *plausible*: a substantial faction of Black leaders were keeping Black voters in line through their influence, but, disillusioned, stopped using that influence, so the line broke up and people sorted ideologically. It's an elegant proposed mechanism. I just need more reason to think Black voters were indeed being significantly influenced by these leaders.
(Now, if you're looking at Muslim voters specifically, I would be much more inclined to believe this, especially given the VERY high tensions between Muslim voters and the rest of the Dem coalition over social issues.)