"I roll 1d634." "That'll be a critical hit." "YES!" "...by covid." "Crap."
I wanted to like this a lot more. I wanted to love this.
But there's two reasons why I have to say "thanks, I hate it." Neither of which have to do with the math. Both of which have to do with the implied meaning and assumed interpretation and judgment.
1) all of this assumes all or nothing, death vs not-death. And not even all or nothing generally speaking, but all or nothing in a highly compressed timeframe of acute death. The reality is that "long covid" and ongoing, devastating covid complications is a huge factor that will hugely affect our world for long to come. And that death from covid will continue to happen chronically.
2) all of this is assuming that the healthcare system is even WORKING at anything close to an optimal level. It is, frankly, not. For a multiplicity of factors, if you are in America today you will not get our best efforts or ability or resources in healthcare that you seek, for any medical reason, but especially for covid. To examine mortality rates across varying degrees of healthcare availability and quality is to artificially flatten and equivocate.
This is, in short, mildly interesting but not practically useful and indeed IMO quite possibly practically harmful if it succeeds in comforting the comfortable in their assumptions without necessary caveats and recognition of unaccountable variables that can interfere with the conclusions to be inferred. (Sorry.)
I would be interested in what these numbers would be if broken down by other health factors, which I assume could be derived from national statistics. I have had COVID now at 40 and it was incredibly mild. I am 40 but also am physically fit and have pretty good nutrition habits.
One thing I have been advocating for (since the pandemic started) is focusing on at risk groups more than the general population. That way general freedoms, as a well as privileges, can continue while still being reasonable. Maybe it is too hard, but I have never had anyone explain to me why it is or if it really is.
I would be interested in a break down of why the hospital systems are being over run as well, because I believe that COVID is a factor but I also believe there are contributing factors that aren't being talked about such as low recruitment (this had been talked about for years prior to pandemic) and retention. I have a lot of nurses and NAs in my family and all of them have been railing about the situations in their respective institutions for as long as I can remember. This is circumstantial, I admit, and I am open to being wrong, which in this case would mean the things I mention are negligible factors.
I also would love to know more about treatment of COVID and how it has evolved.
Lot of research to do.