If Growe LOSES in Minnesota, it is almost certainly the case that no appeal is possible. Growe doesn't have Article III standing. As far as the federal courts are concerned, nothing bad has happened to her! She has no "concrete and particularized injury." She has a state standing to sue anyway only because of a state law (204B.44), which doesn't apply in a federal case requiring federal standing.
On the other hand, if Growe WINS in Minnesota, Trump will have an injury recognized under federal standing rules. An appeal by Trump to SCOTUS if Growe wins seems 100% certain. (However, it's the level of certainty where I'd bet 10% of my monthly income on it, but not my whole house.)
So, to get to SCOTUS, petitioners need to win the case first.
I plan to write a SCOTUS preview post when (if) we get closer to going there. I think it's an uphill battle for petitioners to count to 5 on that court -- yet not an impossible one. The three progressives are likely to go against Trump because they always do. Gorsuch is a textualist fanatic and will go where the text leads him, which (I think) should be to our side. That's four right there; petitioners only need one more. And the only person I would *firmly* rule out is Alito.
2 weeks until we learn whether the case can continue. The ruling (whatever it is) will conclude Phase I of the case. Phase II happens only if Growe & Co. win in Phase I.
Well, that was a surprising and disturbing end to Phase I, especially since they leave the door wide open for the case to come back after it's too late to get another Republican on the ballot. Looking forward to your thoughts when you have them.
"Besides, if it comes down to it, there won’t be chaos, because the U.S. Supreme Court will rule."
This invites the followig key questions:
How certain is an appeal, by either side, to SCOTUS?
Would SCOTUS really rule that Donald Trump is ineligible to be President? That backlash would make Bush v Gore look like a minor disagreement.
If Growe LOSES in Minnesota, it is almost certainly the case that no appeal is possible. Growe doesn't have Article III standing. As far as the federal courts are concerned, nothing bad has happened to her! She has no "concrete and particularized injury." She has a state standing to sue anyway only because of a state law (204B.44), which doesn't apply in a federal case requiring federal standing.
On the other hand, if Growe WINS in Minnesota, Trump will have an injury recognized under federal standing rules. An appeal by Trump to SCOTUS if Growe wins seems 100% certain. (However, it's the level of certainty where I'd bet 10% of my monthly income on it, but not my whole house.)
So, to get to SCOTUS, petitioners need to win the case first.
I plan to write a SCOTUS preview post when (if) we get closer to going there. I think it's an uphill battle for petitioners to count to 5 on that court -- yet not an impossible one. The three progressives are likely to go against Trump because they always do. Gorsuch is a textualist fanatic and will go where the text leads him, which (I think) should be to our side. That's four right there; petitioners only need one more. And the only person I would *firmly* rule out is Alito.
Just my two cents, though.
2 weeks for a wholesale conclusion? Or 2 weeks to learn if the course will continue?
2 weeks until we learn whether the case can continue. The ruling (whatever it is) will conclude Phase I of the case. Phase II happens only if Growe & Co. win in Phase I.
Well, that was a surprising and disturbing end to Phase I, especially since they leave the door wide open for the case to come back after it's too late to get another Republican on the ballot. Looking forward to your thoughts when you have them.
To be clear, SCOMIN rejected the petition in respect to the primary but left the door open to refile to keep Trump off the general election ballot.
This has been the story of Donald Trump: anyone and everyone who could have stopped him, kicked the can down the road to someone else.
I too hope to hear James's thoughts on this.