How worried are you about Kavanaugh's willingness to take a "centrist" position and tank the vote? Also, how much power does the Chief Justice have to make people fall in line with his crusade to not rock the boat?
BEFORE ORALS: I'm 25% worried that Kav will join the Chief for a "centrist" position and recapitulate Roe while upholding the Mississippi law. I'm 5% worried that Kav and the Chief will just join the left side of the Court outright.
AFTER ORALS: I am not worried.
The Chief Justice's only power is that of persuasion. He is persuasive and he is clever and he can assemble coalitions out of thin air. Nobody expected a unanimous decision in Fulton (the gay adoption / free exercise case in Philadelphia last year); that was the Chief's doing. Also, in order to avoid a 5-4 decision, the anti-Roe side will want to find some way to get the Chief on board to make it 6-3. But he has no other power beyond that.
How worried are you about Kavanaugh's willingness to take a "centrist" position and tank the vote? Also, how much power does the Chief Justice have to make people fall in line with his crusade to not rock the boat?
BEFORE ORALS: I'm 25% worried that Kav will join the Chief for a "centrist" position and recapitulate Roe while upholding the Mississippi law. I'm 5% worried that Kav and the Chief will just join the left side of the Court outright.
AFTER ORALS: I am not worried.
The Chief Justice's only power is that of persuasion. He is persuasive and he is clever and he can assemble coalitions out of thin air. Nobody expected a unanimous decision in Fulton (the gay adoption / free exercise case in Philadelphia last year); that was the Chief's doing. Also, in order to avoid a 5-4 decision, the anti-Roe side will want to find some way to get the Chief on board to make it 6-3. But he has no other power beyond that.
What changed your mind during orals?
Kav's questions.
I'll write more later today, in a full separate post, about how these orals went. (They went well!)