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SCOTUS Season Has Begun!
NOW YOU BE THE GHOST JUSTICE
Well, it's the first Monday in October, and that can mean only one thing: a new season of Fantasy Supreme Court! Once again, the folks at LexPredict are giving us the opportunity to bet on how the justices will vote in each case before the Court and score meaningless Internet points if we get them right!
This year, I've decided to start a league. If you'd like to go up against other readers of De Civitate and see who can predict the Supreme Court's decisions best, you can sign up here:
Create an account, if you don't already have one.
Find "De Civ League". We are currently on page
3320 of that table. Click the JOIN link and I'll approve your request!
Our league page is here, but, incredibly, there doesn't seem to be a way to join the league from the league page. You have to find the league in the list.
Invite anyone else you like!
How can you win at Fantasy SCOTUS? Well, I'd like to recommend two resources to you:
SCOTUSBlog, the essential source for all court-related news, briefs, and analysis. In particular, their oral argument recaps give you big insights into which way the justices are leaning, without forcing you to actually read the oral argument transcripts. I'm not predicting any cases this term until I've read oral argument recaps... and maybe even the transcripts, on big issues like the abortion and gun cases.
Empirical SCOTUS, which analyzes the judicial branch through an unusual quantitative lens, can provide helpful insights on vote patterns. For example, did you realize that, last year, despite having a 5-4 majority on the Court, conservatives won only 43% of the 5-4 split decisions? In the past, Justice Kennedy often defected to vote with the progressives; last term, Justices Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, and Roberts each defected in just one or two high-profile cases, but it added up to a similar result, and progressives did quite well last term. Will that hold true this term, with its much heftier cases? We'll find out soon!
(I figure there's about a 50/50 chance that anyone takes me up on this and joins my league, but I'm gonna have a bunch of fun with this regardless.)